Will ECM Libra back down?

NST 11/10: Sime Darby said it received a Securities Commission letter. SC found in its review that Sime doesn't have to make offer for E&O shares. For full story, click h e r e

In my posting on the matter last Thursday (The (still) continuing E & O saga: The Sime Darby vs ECM Libra tussle a proxy war?), I wrote, among other things, that

"the boys at ECM Libra are working hard to try and force a mandatory general offer ... Which is, by the way, a NO GO, I hear".

True enough, the SC has ruled in favor of Sime Darby. In the event of a GO, a lot of people would have made a lot of quick bucks. Because of the SC's decision, some people in ECM Libra have been denied the chance of making a cool RM150 million, give or take a few million ringgit.


Does the E & O saga end here? Certainly not, according to analysts which won't be quoted in the business pages of the mainstream media, ECM Libra is not expected to back down. If this was indeed an Umno vs DAP proxy war, they have to push on.


ECM Libra have several options. Two of them are:


1. Take a litigation suit against Sime Darby and E & O


2. Buy the "cheap" E & O shares from the market with vengeance and with a view of increasing their stakes (which currently could be around 20 per cent). Now that there won't be a GO, Kian Onn, the brains at E & O, won't want to hold 20 per cent that gives him no say in the running of E & O. So, he may consider the opportunity of outsmarting Sime Darby's Mohd Bakke and owning a bigger stake of E & O at a considerably lower price paid by Sime. 


Either way, analysts say, ECM Libra, now seen as a close ally of the DAP or at least the Penang state government, must end up with the ownership of E & O. Remember, the jewel of the crown is the massive tract of land on the island which could give Lim Guan Eng a lot of mileage in the run-up to the next general election, especially if it is in the hands of a "friendly" concern.


Big Dog has a different take on the matter in ...What about Insider Trading?